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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."