🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.